| Raider's Turnaround Season? |
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Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:31 PM PDT
Contributed by: tenaciousp |
 Raiders’ Turnaround Season?
The black screen gives way to an enlarging word, turning counter-clockwise as it looms inexorably towards the front. The crescendo of music builds, and the viewer can see clearly now what the word is.
Raiders.
Lost on an island with little hope of rescue, foes at every turn trampling their dreams, and everyone has given the team up for dead. Does this sound familiar? Oceanic Six? Try Raider 58,000. The last five years for Raider fans have been a non-stop litany of loss, privation, and disappointment. If it weren’t for the goofball antics of the Raiders organization, the half-decade would have been a total write-off.
But wait: Is there justice in the NFL scheduling system? For the Oakland Raiders open the 2008 season at home, a place where they are…well, we won’t talk about their home record. And aren’t the Silver and Black the winningest franchise in professional football (just check your Raiders’ Team of the Decades Media Guide)? So what’s your problem, Raider fans? Plus, they are playing on Monday Night Football (MNF), an event where their record stands at 36-23-1 over the last 37 years. Never mind that the franchise is 5-12 on MNF since returning to Oakland in 1995. And they are playing the Denver Broncos, a team they play respectably against. It’s just Mike Shanahan they always lose to.
So what chance does Oakland have against Denver on Sept. 8? Here is my prediction: Raiders will win because they have to. Statistics demands it.
In their storied 45-year Al Davis history, the Oakland Raiders have opened the season at home but 16 times—thank you, Pete Rozelle. The breakdown of the initial-season christening breaks down as follows: AFC (West): 9 times; AFC (Other): 4; and NFC (Neanderthal): 3. Raiders’ cumulative Opening Day total in these games is 13-3. Significantly, the Raiders’ record against the nine AFC West opponents is 8-1 (can you name the one loss, Raider fans?). In the sixteen seasons they have opened at home, the Raiders have eventually garnered an 8-8 or better record twelve of those years. This means Oakland has a 75% chance at 8-8 this year, simply because they have a home opener—thus proving the axiom that statistics are gibberish (and journalists that use them are apoplectic).
More telling is this: each of the three years Oakland opened their season at home with a loss, they ended up with a losing record (1964, 2006, and 2007). That is a 100% failure rate. In the thirteen games they home-opened with a win? They were 12-1 at 8-8 or better for the season (.923). And the eight games they opened against AFC West teams with a home win? Six winning seasons and two 8-8 campaigns (100%) were the result. That is why statistics demands that Oakland wins against Denver on Sept. 8.
So what is the big deal? Oakland has better athletes, better owner, better fans, better hell-hole stadium, and better-looking cheerleaders. Isn’t this first win a foregone conclusion? Not so fast my Mercedes Benz-owning, motorbike-riding, trailer-trash talking Raider fans. There are two obstacles that obstruct this line of thought.
The first impediment is named Mike Shanahan. Although he has never faced an AFC foe on the road to open the season, Coach Mike Shanahan hardly ever loses to the Silver and Black. His razor-sharp 20-6 (.769) winning record is only slightly dulled when the games are played on Raider turf (9-4, .692). What Shanahan feels he is still owed by Al Davis in bonus incentives, he has exacted in blood money. Over the years, the Red Cross has dealt with less donated hemoglobin than Raider fans have given in vain for their team. Like a thirsty vampire, Shanahan is coming to get more.
The second obstacle—incredulously—is more difficult to overcome. The Oakland Raiders are currently a losing organization. We all know the won-loss numbers, and we have all felt the pain. The reflective question is: why? How does a once-proud franchise lose 61 games in five years? How is such a dubious distinction of failure possible in today’s mediocre NFL?
The answer to this writer seems to revolve around process versus competition. The Raiders the past five years have been about process, while the NFL has always been about competition. What Lincoln Kennedy said about football in 2002 remains true today: “Did you outscore the other team?” Today’s Silver-and-Black franchise too-often plays more like library aides than pro football players. Raiders go out, run through the motions, throw away opportunities, blow the final drive, tack on another loss, make excuses after the game, and collect their paychecks. The scenario became so treadmill that the media even had their go-to guys for press interviews after the inevitable loss. Can you name them, Raider fans? Lamont Jordan, Warren Sapp, and Stuart Schweigert. Al Davis seems to have caught onto this symbiotic relationship, because what do these three players have in common today? That’s right: none of them are currently with the Oakland Raiders.
This is the two-headed dragon that Oakland players face on September 8. Luckily, the Raider insignia has two swords for just such an exigency. See that bug-eyed little man over on the Denver sidelines? While Raider players are trying to grab the dangling rope in order to pull themselves up, you can be sure that Mike Shanahan is trying to hang them with it. Shanahan has already predicted the Broncos will make the playoffs this season, and such an assertion depends on a first win for its validity. This is an extremely important game for the Oakland Raiders. It could signal their turnaround season. Or it could songfully sound the chime that—like organized religion—nothing will change. Except we will have a new generation of excuse-makers.
Regardless of outcome, one thing will not change. That is Raider fan loyalty. Drunk, debt-ridden, and unemployed, we stand by the tragedy known as the Oakland Raiders. Each Raider fan has about 61 questions that will be answered on September 8. Win their home opener against Denver and Oakland has a chance to be 4-0 going into the BYE week; lose and the Silver and Black leaves open the possibility of being 0-4 at the break. Either way, win or lose—first-place or last—the position of the Raider fan remains firm. We will gnash our teeth, cheer every first down, boo (not our best attribute), wail at the top of our lungs, threaten the referee, give credit for good plays, bemoan our own existence at dropped passes, and dutifully piddle away our six-pack. We know the game of football. We are in it for the long haul. And our memory is long.
All is not lost.
Craig Parker
Author, Football’s Blackest Hole
Al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia
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